There are a lot of misconceptions about football prediction. However, many bettors choose to make a decision based on their instincts, loyalty to a team or opinions on social media. There is always some unpredictability in football, but a wise bettor knows that the essential key to making a successful prediction is statistics.
At Betwinpredict, we think that knowledge always beats chance. While no statistical analysis will ensure that every prediction is accurate, it will still help you to find value, avoid emotional wagers and make better long-term decisions.
Even if you are not a football betting expert, you can predict football games with the help of statistics using the following guide. We'll explore how top analysts arrive at predictions and explain what numbers are important and which are not.
Why Statistics Matter in Football Predictions
In football, in a low-scoring game, little details can make a difference in the game. One red card, one mistake on the defence, or one penalty can make all the difference. So success in predicting is not a matter of certainty but a matter of probabilities.
When it comes to statistics, the bettors can:
- Remove emotional bias
- Identify trends and beat the bookmakers' odds.
- Evaluate the teams' work objectively.
- Know your own and others' strengths and weaknesses
- Use a consistent betting strategy.
Rather than Who do you think will win? ask:
Based on the numbers, which is most likely to occur?
The change in thinking is that easy, and that's where it's all going wrong for some. It's a minor change in attitude, and that's what they're getting wrong for some when it comes to betting.
Make Sure to Begin With the Latest Team Shape
One of the first numbers that any bettor needs to look at is a recent form.
Most analysts tend to view the last 5-10 games rather than the entire season, since football teams are ever-evolving due to injuries, tactics, transfers, and player confidence.
Rather than just tallying wins and losses, seek to understand and ask more questions:
- What is the number of goals they score?
- What is the number of goals they have let through?
- Did those games go against tough or easy opponents?
- Is there an increase or decrease in performance?
For instance, four wins might seem like a lot for a team. But when they've been won against poor-quality opponents, the figures aren't that impressive.
Context always matters.
Analyse Home and Away Performance
One of the most common errors that beginners commit is thinking the same teams perform the same in all locations.
Many clubs are entirely different teams away from home.
A good home side might:
- Score more goals
- Concede fewer chances
- Maintain higher possession
- Play significantly more games and win more!
In the interim, however, away games could be entirely different.
Always compare:
Home Statistics | Away Statistics |
Win percentage | Win percentage |
Goals scored | Goals scored |
Goals conceded | Goals conceded |
Clean sheets | Clean sheets |
Ignoring venue is one of the fastest ways to make poor predictions.
Take a close look at the results from the study head-to-head.
Head-to-head matches can be beneficial, but only when played correctly.
Many bettors get into the habit of betting on matches from five or even ten years ago.
Those teams are not necessarily today's teams.
Instead, focus on:
The last 3–5 meetings
Games played under comparable circumstances
As far as key players are concerned. As far as key players were concerned.
Tactical similarities
So if one team is constantly outplayed by the other team's style of play, the trend can be applicable.
However, don't let head-to-head records be the deciding factor over current form.
More weight should always be given to recent performances.
Look Beyond Goals
Goals reveal part of the story.
The statistics underlying it can tell the rest.
Football experts pay great attention to indicators such as the following:
Expected Goals (xG)
Expected Goals looks beyond just scoring and is a measure of the quality of opportunity created.
A team can go 1–0 with an xG of 2.8 and its opponent 0.5.
They lost, but it also shows that they were playing well and could be underestimated in the future.
Shots on Target
Sustained attacking pressure is evidenced by being able to shoot the ball more often than before, consistently.
Quality opportunities will go up and up if teams are consistent at creating them.
Defensive Statistics
Look for:
Goals conceded
Expected goals against (xGA)
Clean sheets
Tackles won
Defensive errors
Defensive numbers will be more important in most cases than their offensive appearance.
Review Team News before any prediction.
It's not statistics unless you take into account what the team is doing today.
Always verify:
Injuries
Suspensions
Player rotation
Fixture congestion
International duty
If Manchester City are without a few of their key first-choice players, they look entirely different to Manchester City at full strength.
An absence of one player, who is a striker, can significantly lower the expected goals.
However, the lack of a defensive leader can make the difference on the scoreboard as well.
Understand Team Motivation
Statistics explain performance.
Motivation explains intensity.
Ask yourself:
Does the team have a title on their agenda?
Is relegation a possibility?
Have they already made it to the finals?
Is this a cup match against league games?
Could players be rested?
As the season draws near, motivation could be among the key considerations in football prediction.
Numbers are always used in conjunction with context.
Compare Statistics With Betting Odds
Prediction is thought to be over once you have studied the statistics.
This is the point where value betting starts, in fact.
Let's assume, based on your analysis, that the odds of Team A winning are about 60%.
With bookmakers betting them at a 45% price, it might be worth taking a punt on them.
The key to successful betting is more than just predicting the winners.
It's about recognising when the market's got the wrong idea about the chances of a team.
It is the way that disciplined bettors make money in the long run.
Make a Prediction with Several Statistics
Don't make decisions based on one statistic.
Rather, use multiple indicators.
You could make the strong prediction that:
Better recent form
Strong home record
Higher expected goals
Few injuries
Better defensive record
Greater motivation
If several statistics are pointing in the same direction, then there is a high level of confidence.
A single number is not enough for the professional.
Common Pitfalls In Using Statistics
Numbers are very useful but need to be used wisely.
These are the typical mistakes to steer clear of:
Betting Based on One Match
There are random effects in football.
Don't become overly emotional about a single high performance.
Be aware of longer-term trends.
Ignoring Fixture Difficulty
It won't be the same to have a victory over weaker opposition as it will be over the title contenders.
Take into account the past opponents' quality.
Chasing Popular Opinions
Predictions about social media are typically based on perceptions and not data.
Create your own analysis before other people's.
Overlooking Tactical Matchups
Sometimes style is more important than league position.
Fewer points can be enough to cause problems to opponents with more points, as long as they are playing a counter-attacking style of play.
A Practical Example
Visualise these facts before a game:
Team A
Won seven of 10 games last season
Scoring 2.1 goals per game, on average
Home win rate of 75%
xG average of 2.0
No major injuries
Team B
A 2-10 record in the last decade
Allowing an average of 1.9 goals a game
Poor away record
The absence of two of the starting defenders.
Even without a look at either team's record, there is already a strong indication that team A has a much higher chance of winning.
Then, apply the odds to bookmakers.
When the odds are properly in line with that advantage, there might be little betting value.
If they underestimate Team A, you have a good chance of having a great betting opportunity.
Professional Analysts Trust Data
Not every professional football analyst tries to foresee each surprise.
Rather, they are concerned with making correct estimates of probability based on hundreds of games.
High-level analysts make inaccurate predictions.
Their winning picks are always better than random, and they're not based on emotion but on evidence.
Betwinpredict's football predictions are done with that very mindset.
All predictions start with statistical research, followed by team news and tactical analysis, and finally market value.
Frequently Asked Questions
Are football predictions possible by examining stats alone?
While statistics do have a way of providing an idea of what is likely to happen, football has a way of being unpredictable. They, however, greatly enhance the quality of predictions by enabling bettors to spot patterns, probabilities, and value opportunities.
What stats are most important in the game of football?
Some of the most useful are recent form, xG (expected goals), home and away performance, goals scored and conceded, shots on target and team news.
Can head-to-head history be trusted?
Head-to-head records are good to use for information but should not be used to the detriment of squad quality, injuries, tactical changes or form.
Will pro gamblers use data?
Yes. The majority of the most successful football analysts and professional football betting experts will use a mixture of statistical analysis, tactical knowledge and market evaluation before making their football bets.
Are there any other statistics that are way too advanced for a beginner to use?
Absolutely. Advanced metrics can be a bit complicated at first glance, but they do offer a much better understanding of team performance than goals.
Is it possible to make sure of winning bets based on statistics?
No. There is no such thing as eliminating uncertainty in football, regardless of the statistical model that is used. The aim is to enhance the decision-making process and to have a better long-term outcome – not to be right every time.
